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  • Ryan Wittler

A Protracted War with Russia Could Put 90% of Ukraine’s Population at Risk of Poverty


A new analysis from the U.N. Development Programme (UNDP) shows a long, drawn-out war with Russia could leave 90% of Ukraine’s population at risk of falling into poverty.

Some highlights:

The analysis found a drawn-out war could push the number of Ukrainians living on less than $5 per day from 3% before the invasion to 28% in a matter of months.

  • Over 90% of the population could be living on less than $13 per day by the end of 2022, under the UNDP’s worst case scenario.

  • Up to 18 years of overall economic development could be wiped out within the next 12 to 18 months.

The war has already caused over $100 billion in damage to vital infrastructure, including roads, hospitals, and schools, according to Ukrainian government estimates provided to the UNDP.

  • Over 50% of businesses have also been forced to close, according to the estimates.

What to do:

The UNDP is calling for “a large-scale emergency cash transfer operation” to keep millions of Ukrainians out of poverty.

  • The analysis found a cash transfer costing member nations $250 million per month would cover partial income losses for 2.6 million Ukrainians.

  • A more ambitious plan providing a basic income of $5.50 per day per person would cost $430 million.

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